Psychology Researchers Found New Evidence for the 'Broken Windows' Policing Theory

First devised by a pair of criminologists writing in The Atlantic some 34 years ago, the theory of “broken windows” swept U.S. cities during the crime-ridden 1980s and 90s. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Police Commissioner Bill Bratton famously put the idea that a neighborhood in visual disarray begets crime into practice, by targeting law enforcement in neighborhoods with abandoned houses, litter-strewn sidewalks, and graffitied walls. And they proudly (though perhaps wrongly) credited the principle as the key reason crime later dropped. Police departments nationwide continue to deploy similar tactics, under the stated goal of pre-empting more serious crimes.

Yet despite its lasting impact on criminology, the science behind the broken-windows theory was always a bit thin. The idea was that people “read” neighborhood disorder as a sign that no authorities are watching, allowing them to infer that they, too, can break the rules. But little data has ever proved if, and how, that really happens. Making such an interpretation would be full of subjectivities, assumptions, and complex reasoning about poverty, policing, and social norms around class and race—which hits on one major criticism of the theory, that it gives cops an pathway to penalize poor neighborhoods of color. And all those entangled strands of influence make the psychological mechanics of the theory exceptionally difficult to nail down.