If Romney Stumbles in South Carolina, Is the Economy to Blame?

Attacks on Mitt Romney as a soulless "corporate raider" leading a company "more ruthless than Wall Street" didn't work so well in New Hampshire. The former Massachusetts governor still managed to win the primary there handily, notching two wins in a row (or one win and one unclear outcome that's being called a tie, as it turns out). But renewed pounding on his speaking fees and 15 percent tax payments may be taking its toll in South Carolina. The Washington Post noted on Wednesday that conservative talk radio was ablaze with talk of a Gingrich surge there. Then a series of polls showed Gingrich closing the gap with Romney in the state. Nate Silver's latest projections give Gingrich an advantage in the state of almost three points.

While most accounts focus on Gingrich's most recent debate performances or Romney's corporate image, part of the story may well have to do with the economy. Conservatives tend to do better where the economy is worse.