At what thresholds of diversity does a single county turn blue?

It's been widely noted that Barack Obama's winning coalition drew up the wide ethnic, racial, gender, and sexual orientation diversity of a new and rising America, while Mitt Romney and the GOP captured the wide majority of white men. In their 2004 book The Emerging Democratic Majority, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira describe this new majority based on diverse ethnic and racial voting blocs and knowledge workers in urban "ideopolises."

Last week, I posted on Dave Troy's analysis of density and Democratic advantage. Troy's analysis finds that U.S. places essentially turn blue at about 800 people per square mile. 
 
Troy has a new post out where he looks at the role of diversity.
 
 
As with density, Troy finds some intriguing tipping points with regard to diversity based upon the racial and ethnic composition of U.S. counties. Counties turned blue at the following thresholds: 39 percent black, nine percent Hispanic, and just three percent Asian. Counties that are 45 percent white voted blue, while those that are more than 55 percent white voted red.
 

The underlying "drivers" of American voting patterns, writes Troy, are "density and diversity" — both of which are found in larger, more populated cities and their constituent counties.

Lede image: U.S. President Barack Obama's supporters listen to his acceptance speech after winning the U.S. presidential election, in Chicago, Illinois on Nov. 7. (Jason Reed/Reuters)

About the Author

Most Popular

  1. The Presidio Terrace neighborhood
    POV

    The Problem of Progressive Cities and the Property Tax

    The news that a posh San Francisco street was sold for delinquent taxes exposes the deeper issue with America’s local revenue system.

  2. "Gift Horse"—a skeletal sculpture of a horse by artist Hans Haacke—debuted on the Fourth Plinth in London's Trafalgar Square in 2015.
    Design

    What To Do With Baltimore's Empty Confederate Statue Plinths?

    Put them to work, Trafalgar Square style.

  3. Times Square, 1970.
    Life

    The New York That Belonged to the City

    Hyper-gentrification turned renegade Manhattan into plasticine playground. Can the city find its soul again?

  4. Equity

    The Complex Relationship Between Innovation and Economic Segregation

    It’s not just the tech industry that’s responsible for America’s stratifying cities.

  5. Equity

    Meet the 26-Year-Old Mayor Taking On Jeff Sessions

    Michael Tubbs on being singled out by the DOJ, and his plan turn his city around.