The Rise of the Sun Belt

U.S. population growth is at its lowest point since the Depression Era. But that slowdown isn’t apparent everywhere. In the Sun Belt states, economic revival has lured workers from other parts of the country, actually strengthening the population growth rate.

According to a new analysis of recent Census data by Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, the nation’s annual population growth has dropped to 0.7 percent—the lowest rate since since 1937. While the growth rate has risen and fallen at various points over the decades, it had stayed above 0.9 percent until the 2008 recession. The subsequent decline in fertility rates has contributed substantially to this latest drop. But while fertility might pick up as the economy strengthens, it’s the continued aging of the U.S. population and the high death rates that could slow down growth to an estimated 0.5 percent by 2040. Immigration to the country, which also declined with the recession but has now started inching up, is the main reason the population is growing at all.