The outward signs of income are so predictable that even robots can learn them.

(Stamen/DigitalGlobe/Carnegie Mellon)

Shade, swimming pools, and solar panels are often signs of moneyed folk, at least in U.S. cities. Brown lawns and industry tend to mark poorer communities.

These patterns of wealth are so predictable that even robots can learn them. An online interactive called “Penny” proves it, and opens questions around the role that machines might play in the urban future.

A joint collaboration between Stamen Design, DigitalGlobe, and Carnegie Mellon University, Penny is artificial intelligence that can “read” satellite imagery of two very different cities and judge the income brackets of neighborhoods within them. Curious users can test her power by moving a viewfinder over stitched aerial photographs of New York City and St. Louis; once run, Penny will judge the level of median income with various degrees of confidence.

The Upper East Side of Manhattan? High median income. The St. Louis Arch? Medium-high.

More intriguing is that Penny allows a bit of Sim City-esque play. What would happen to the neighborhood’s predicted median income level if, say, a tennis court or a greenhouse appeared where that park is? What if a school bus parking lot replaced those homes, or a famous luxury hotel? Run Penny again, and she’ll offer a new prediction.

Sometimes the results are intuitive, sometimes not. Throw a parking lot over Trump Tower in midtown, and you’ll decrease Penny’s confidence that it’s a high-wealth area. Makes sense. But shove the Plaza Hotel into certain pockets of Harlem, and you increase her prediction that it’s a low-income area. Planting trees to improve a neighborhood’s predicted socioeconomic status works in some cases, but not there.

(Stamen/Digital Globe/Carnegie Mellon)

Even when it’s not apparent to the human user, Penny has a logical explanation for every interpretation. Like every AI, she bases interpretations on previously learned patterns. Jordan Winkler, a geospatial data engineer with the satellite imagery and software company DigitalGlobe, helped “train” Penny’s neural network to memorize Census income data for the two cities. The program then learned to correlate this knowledge with the lines, colors, and shapes embedded in the satellite images.

“It has no subjective concept of what the Plaza Hotel is,” says Winkler. “So when you drop the Plaza into the Bronx, it’s saying that this new pattern of shapes and colors, and what’s been covered up by it, looks more like lower-income places it’s seen.”

That doesn’t mean that a real-world transfer of a luxury hotel into a high-poverty neighborhood would necessarily have an income-depressing effect. Penny merely knows how to draw correlation, not causation. According to Winkler and Jon Christensen, a strategic advisor at Stamen Design, the mapping firm that finessed the aesthetics, the tool is meant to provoke conversation around a conclusion with scientific backing: Wealth is visible from space—and can be tracked as its contours invariably shift.

Still, Penny brushes up against an eerie implication: A robot could theoretically make “smarter” urban planning decisions than humans themselves. Or a robot could be deployed with that belief, and miss some critical human element hidden in its data diet—or succumb to the data’s inherent bias.

Already, artificial intelligence is being used to help govern cities in certain contexts, such as predicting where traffic and crime might occur. How far into urban space should AI tread? Penny’s a place to start thinking.

About the Author

Most Popular

  1. photo: Developer James Rouse visiting Harborplace in Baltimore's Inner Harbor.
    Life

    What Happened to Baltimore’s Harborplace?

    The pioneering festival marketplace was among the most trendsetting urban attractions of the last 40 years. Now it’s looking for a new place in a changed city.

  2. Equity

    What ‘Livability’ Looks Like for Black Women

    Livability indexes can obscure the experiences of non-white people. CityLab analyzed the outcomes just for black women, for a different kind of ranking.

  3. Design

    Why Amsterdam’s Canal Houses Have Endured for 300 Years

    A different kind of wealth distribution in 17th-century Amsterdam paved the way for its quintessential home design.

  4. Design

    Before Paris’s Modern-Day Studios, There Were Chambres de Bonne

    Tiny upper-floor “maids’ rooms” have helped drive down local assumptions about exactly how small a livable home can be.

  5. photo: Bernie Sanders
    Life

    Bernie Sanders Wins Endorsement From the Internet’s Premier Urbanist Meme-Makers

    In backing the Vermont senator, the popular Facebook group “New Urbanist Memes for Transit-Oriented Teens” is leveraging some offline political clout.

×