To Defeat an Incumbent Mayor, Run in an Off-Cycle Election Year

Virginia’s election in November had major nationwide implications, thanks to an unexpected win by Governor-elect Ralph Northam after a contest that saw his challenger, Ed Gillespie, reach deep into the Trump playbook. But you wouldn’t know it mattered so much by the turnout. About 2.6 million people showed up to the polls for the November general elections—less than half of registered voters, and 1.4 million fewer than participated in the 2016 election.

Turnout was similarly low in another 2017 contest, in New Jersey, where just 39 percent of registered voters pulled the lever for Governor-elect Phil Murphy. But the low-turnout, off-cycle race might have worked to the advantage of Hoboken Mayor-elect Ravi Bhalla, who, despite enduring a racist flier campaign, persevered in an open race to become the first Sikh mayor in New Jersey’s history.