How Trump's Tax Cuts Could Change the Electoral Map

Tax cuts are typically couched in economic terms, but they have clear political aims and implications. Much ink has already been spilled on how the Trump tax cuts are designed to undermine blue states and cities. Costs will rise considerably in these already expensive places since residents will no longer be able to deduct their high state and local tax bills and the interest on their mortgages for pricey homes.

In a recent New York Times op-ed, Will Wilkinson of the Niskanen Center argued that the long-term result of the cuts may be to unwittingly undermine the GOP’s advantage on the electoral map, by encouraging a new migration of talented people who will gradually turn red or purple states like Florida, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina into blue states. “The tax act’s ceiling on deductions is likely to make many blue-state metro areas even more expensive—at least in the short run,” Wilkinson wrote. “With the Republican changes to the tax code, the high-cost dynamic that has effectively redistributed some probable Democratic voters from left-leaning to right-leaning states will be thrown into overdrive.” This is compounded by the effects of the corporate tax cut, which could drive new investment and job creation in red states, where each dollar goes further.