In Mississippi Senate Race, the Suburbs Won’t Save Democrat Mike Espy

Democrats swept back control of the U.S. House this month due to dominance in suburban districts. But in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate runoff Tuesday, Republicans have two big advantages. Not only is Mississippi one of the country’s least suburban states, it’s also sharply divided by one of the few factors that matter more in American politics than density: race.

Mississippi is marked by a racial divide between its white majority and its African-American minority—bigger than any other state—that shows up in its politics. Just like in the rest of the country, black voters in Mississippi are overwhelmingly Democratic. But unlike many other states, white Mississippians don’t just lean Republican—they’re overwhelmingly conservative. The New York Times estimated that the 2012 Mississippi electorate was 60 percent white and 38 percent black. But voting there is highly correlated with race—Democrat Barack Obama won an estimated 93 percent of African Americans and 13 percent of whites in 2012. Nationwide, Obama got around 95 percent of black voters but 41 percent of white voters. The racial divide has been similarly stark in other recent presidential elections, such as 2004.