Reuters

New Geography's list of the five areas that will do best post-election day, no matter who wins

Joel Kotkin over at The New Geography has put together a list of the metro regions most likely to flourish after the next election. His reasoning hinges on the following:

Our list assumes that we will be living in a post-stimulus environment ... And given it is unlikely the Democrats will regain the House - and they could still lose the Senate - we are unlikely to see anything like the massive spending associated with Obama’s first two years in office.

Clearly the stimulus helped prop up certain regions, such as New York City, Washington and various university towns, which benefited from the financial bailout, lax fiscal discipline and grants to research institutions. But in the foreseeable future, fundamental economic competitiveness will be more important. Global market forces will prove more decisive than grand academic visions.

With that in mind, Kotkin lies out the potential winners for the next four years. Winners include:

  • Energy belt states like Texas, Oklahoma and Montana ("even if Europe falls into recession, demand from China and other developing countries, as well as threats from Iran to cut off the Persian Gulf, will keep energy prices high.");
  • Agricultural heartland states like Omaha (whose "strong agriculture-based economy keeps its unemployment rate well under 5 percent");
  • The Southwest's new manufacturing belt (which benefits from its connection to Mexico. "Future big growth will not come from bailed-out General Motors or Chrysler, with their legacy costs and still-struggling quality issues, but from foreign makers - Japanese, German and increasingly Korean - that build highly rated, energy-efficient vehicles.");
  • The technosphere ("Silicon Valley, as well as the Boston area, has thrived under the stimulus, and worldwide demand for technology products will continue to spark some growth in those areas.");
  • and the Pacific Northwest ("This is one blue region in the country with excellent prospects.")

See his rationale for each here.

Photo credit: Todd Korol/Reuters

About the Author

Most Popular

  1. Perspective

    Untangling the Housing Shortage and Gentrification

    Untangling these related but different problems is important, because the tactics for solving one won’t work for the other.

  2. A cyclist rides on the bike lane in the Mid Market neighborhood during Bike to Work Day in San Francisco,
    Perspective

    Why We Need to Dream Bigger Than Bike Lanes

    In the 1930s big auto dreamed up freeways and demanded massive car infrastructure. Micromobility needs its own Futurama—one where cars are marginalized.

  3. a photo of police and residents of Stockton, CA, in a trust-building workshop
    Equity

    A Police Department’s Difficult Assignment: Atonement

    In Stockton, California, city and law enforcement leaders are attempting to build trust between police and communities of color. Why is this so hard to do?

  4. a photo of the Maryland Renaissance Festival
    Life

    The Utopian Vision That Explains Renaissance Fairs

    What’s behind the enduring popularity of all these medieval-themed living-history festivals?

  5. Navigator

    How to See Fall Colors Without a Car

    Americans often hit the road to see fall foliage, but it can be difficult to take the same trip without a car. These places make it a little easier.

×