a map of historic rainfall odds in the U.S.
Want a dry 4th of July? Stay out of Florida. David Montgomery/CityLab

We crunched the rainfall measurements for July 4 for every county in continental U.S. to calculate the historic odds of an Independence Day downpour.

Nothing puts the damper on watching fireworks soar into the sky than having rain coming right back down.

Only your local weather forecast can tell you whether it’s going to rain on your Fourth of July. But CityLab has crunched the numbers from the National Weather Service to figure out the odds that your community’s parades and fireworks have been menaced by rain.

The extremes are pretty predictable: Miami gets significant rain on July 4 more than 60 percent of the time. Chicago gets a wet Fourth a little under 20 percent of the time. And in L.A., Angelenos have endured a grand total of zero Independence Days with significant rain since 1980. Check out the map below.

Percent of Fourth of Julys since 1980 with more than a tenth of an inch of measured rain in each U.S. county. Data not available for Alaska and Hawaii.

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