How Low Turnover Fuels New York City’s Affordable Housing Crisis

We are accustomed to gauging the housing health of cities through some familiar data points: vacancy rates, new building permits, affordability. But there’s another, under-appreciated measure which explains a great deal about a city’s housing market and, specifically, provides an insight into the ongoing housing “crisis” that plagues some of America’s most prosperous cities, especially New York. Let’s call it churn. You might also call it turnover—the rate at which one household moves out and a new one moves in.

At first glance, a high churn rate might not seem to be a positive. Stable communities and households with deep roots in communities are, in many ways, desirable. But when too many residents stay put for too long, problems arise. For one, housing can be under-utilized—and that poses a problem for potential newcomers. Among the reasons that New York City’s vast public housing system has such a long waiting list—HUD data shows it takes, on average, 99 months before an applicant gets an apartment—is its estimated 25 percent rate of “over-occupancy.” These are chiefly older residents whose children have moved out, living alone in units with multiple bedrooms.