The Delusion and Deception in Megaproject Cost Estimates

Canada’s largest infrastructure project at the moment is the so-called “Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown,” a 25-km light rail transit line that will traverse much of mid-town Toronto. Unlike most light rail schemes, about three quarters of the Crosstown route will operate underground in twinned tunnels served by 21 below-grade stations. The Ontario government is picking up the C$8.2 billion tab, while Metrolinx, a provincial transit agency, will manage the planning and construction over the next decade.

But in the eight months since Toronto mayor Rob Ford negotiated the Crosstown deal with Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty, local critics have been wondering about the reliability of that very large cost estimate, and whether the final price will be larger, as often happens with such megaprojects.